In addition, although the book was released in 2007, a newly revised edition with almost 100 extra pages was released in may. Chris anderson, editor in chief of wired, author of the long tail. Black swan author taleb sees government debt as pure ponzi. Jan 04, 20 the black swan, of nicholas nassim talebs title, describes an event that occurs completely outside expectations, has an enormous impact on future developments, and can be explained only in hindsight as predictable. But if you are going to read it then you must commit to reading it at least two or three times to let it.
The most valuable takeaway message is that history does not always prepare us for the future taleb uses the example of turkeys and christmas. The impact of the highly improbable is a 2007 book by author and former options trader nassim nicholas taleb. Beware faux experts who dont pay for their actions, nassim taleb. The book was a bestseller, selling three million copies. Readers of his books might recognize this approach as the barbell strategy. Nassim taleb looks at the impact and human psychology of extreme events. The book s central thesis, that the statistical models beloved by mai nstream. As i noted here, seth klarman recently recommended the book as very important to read.
Once upon a time there was a clever young financial professional called nassim. The author famous for the black swan is a bit of a black swan himself an unexpected phenomenon arising from the collision of several arcane disciplines and. Mar 24, 2008 nassim nicholas taleb is an essayist, belletrist, and researcher only interested in one single topic, chance particularly extreme and rare events, the black swans i. The book is about unexpected events black swans and the problems with statistical models such as the normal distribution that dont allow for these rarities. The other books in the series are fooled by randomness, the black swan, skin in the game, and the bed of procrustes. Beware faux experts who dont pay for their actions, nassim. Antifragile is a standalone book in nassim nicholas talebs landmark incerto series, an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decisionmaking in a world we dont. Nassim nicholas taleb doesnt like to carry any debt. Black swan author taleb sees government debt as pure. Nassim nicholas taleb and his enemies in the process of becoming rich, famous and outspoken, nassim nicholas taleb the bestselling author of the black swan has accumulated enemies. Oct, 2009 in the authors point of view, a black swan is an improbable event with three principal characteristics it is unpredictable.
Safe assets on the left numeraire repository of value and risky assets on the right the black swan. But it was his second book, the black swan, which brought taleb attention on a global scale. The author famous for the black swan is a bit of a black swan himself an unexpected phenomenon arising from the collision of several arcane. Nassim talebs black swan explained in this video youll learn about black swan theory, which the famous author and quant trader nassim taleb made popular. With debt they have the arguments, they dont need me. In his ten principles for a black swan robust world, nassim nicholas taleb is on the ramparts assuming an activist role in urging us to move voluntarily into capitalism 2. The book spans innovation by trial and error, life decisions, politics, urban planning, war, personal finance, economic systems and medicine, drawing on modern street wisdom and ancient sources. The new section of the book includes, among other things, a prescription for withstanding a black swan. Black swan author nassim nicholas taleb divides the world. So lets zoom out seven years later is it seven years already.
The black swan author just issued a powerful warning about. Things that gain from disorder, talks about risks created by. Heres a great short interview with nassim taleb on bloomberg in which he discusses the coronavirus as being a white swan not a black swan event, as well. Antifragility is a concept developed by professor, former trader and former hedge fund. Broadly, it shows that humans tend to create environments where extreme events are more likely and then underestimate their probability. However, i am glad that i came to it in its second edition, with footnotes addressing some of the criticisms made of it tip. In the black swan he argued that modernity is too complex to understand, and black swan events hitherto. Talebs two previous books fooled by randomness and the black swan drew their appeal from being more narrowly focused on the failures of economists and financial traders to understand the. Nassim nicholas taleb and his enemies conservative home. Nassim nicholas talebs advice on borrowing money and. Nassim nicholas taleb s the black swan is a fascinating but deeply flawed book. The first book that i read in the fourvolume incerto set by nassim kaleb was antifragile, so my reading of the black swan is out of sequence. He even coined a now oftrepeated term to capture his criticism black swan which became a huge new york times bestselling book.
Nassim nicholas taleb has never borrowed a cent in his life the author of the black swan and skin in the game on what its like to have true financial freedom. Ten principles for a blackswanrobust world by nassim. In his ten principles for a black swanrobust world, nassim nicholas taleb is on the ramparts assuming an activist role in urging us to move voluntarily into capitalism 2. In the course of 400 pages, nassim taleb discourses amusingly and eruditely on black swans and the human reaction to them, which isnt always logical.
The world is more fragile today than it was in 2007. So debt is dangerous if you are overconfident about the future and are black swan blind which we all tend to be. The black swan a best seller authored by nassim taleb, has been on my reading list for some time. In fact, the scholar and author of the black swan has never, ever borrowed a penny, he tells esquire. The danger of debt the sunday times post but in this instance, the government came in indiscriminately to bail out everyone. Beware faux experts who dont pay for their actions. Nassim nicholas taleb, the bestselling author of the black swan and one of the foremost thinkers of our time, reveals how to thrive in an uncertain world. Antifragile is a blueprint for living in a black swan world. Nassim taleb has long been a critic of traditional forecasting methods like the ones underlying. The fed is looking at the banking system all wrong. Nassim nicholas taleb s antifragile changed nikhil sikris life. Black swan author nassim taleb has never, ever borrowed a penny.
Nassim taleb is a literary essayist, hedge fund manager, derivatives trader and. Nassim taleb has long been a critic of traditional forecasting methods like the ones underlying these stress tests. May 30, 2017 the black swan portfolio together you could view the two as a barbell portfolio. Apr 09, 2007 the book is about unexpected events black swans and the problems with statistical models such as the normal distribution that dont allow for these rarities. Safe assets on the left numeraire repository of value and risky assets on the right the black swan portfolio. Among other things, the book presciently cautioned that oversized and. But if you are going to read it then you must commit to reading it at. The idea is not so much to predict these black swan events, as to walk away from them or to know where they can occur. This results in everything from world wars to major market meltdowns. The impact of the highly improbable, the perfect setup for the financialsystem crash of 2008. Mild randomness, my chapter with benoit mandelbrot in your book, is what. For nassim nicholas taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own. May 02, 2018 nassim talebs black swan explained in this video youll learn about black swan theory, which the famous author and quant trader nassim taleb made popular. Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer, with wit, irreverence, and unusual stories to tell.
Nassim nicholas taleb, the bestselling author of the black swan, has published a new book about politics and finance titled skin in the game. The black swan, of nicholas nassim talebs title, describes an event that occurs completely outside expectations, has an enormous impact on future developments, and can be. I have read his other books and they are all good but antifragile is the synthesis of all of his ideas. Nassim nicholas taleb s black swan is essential reading for an entrepreneur.
The pandemic isnt a black swan but a portent of a more. Nassim taleb will be in conversation with ed smith at union chapel. Here is nassim nicholas taleb being interviewed about his book. He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to probability. Nassim nicholas taleb is irritated, he told bloomberg television on march 31st, whenever the coronavirus pandemic is referred to as a black swan, the term he coined for an. The impact of the highly improbable paperback 28 feb 2008. Keeping tabs on nassim taleb and the highly improbable. Apr 25, 2018 nassim nicholas taleb doesnt like to carry any debt. Erudite, witty, and iconoclastic, taleb s message is revolutionary. Debt spreading like cancer video author and new york university professor nassim taleb told cnbc this morning reporters that the worlds debt problems were spreading like cancer. But it was his second book, the black swan, which brought taleb attention. Legendary trader, risk analyst, and author, nassim taleb, recently spoke with yahoo finance about his concerns over the swelling public debt.
Nassim taleb the black swan book synopsis w quotes. Praise for nassim nicholas taleb the most prophetic voice of all. Things that gain from disorder, talks about risks created by government debt and federal reserve monetary policy. In fact, the scholar and author of the black swan has never, ever borrowed a penny. His 2007 book the black swan has been described by the. The black swan author just issued a powerful warning.
May 18, 2019 nassim nicholas taleb, the bestselling author of the black swan, popularized the term black swan so much so that hes dubbed the black swan man. The point is, the system is fragile because we had a lot of debt. In the authors point of view, a black swan is an improbable event with three principal characteristics it is unpredictable. But he is best known these days as the author of the black swan. Apr 21, 2020 nassim nicholas taleb is irritated, he told bloomberg television on march 31st, whenever the coronavirus pandemic is referred to as a black swan, the term he coined for an. The economic situation today is drastically worse than a couple years ago, and the euro is doomed as a concept, nassim taleb, professor and author of the bestselling book the black swan, told cnbc on thursday. The impact of the highly improbable by naseem nicholas taleb this books deal with the impact of extreme events, the outliers, unpredictable, unfathomable, rare and random episodes.
Black swan author nassim nicholas taleb on fragility. The black swan is a landmark bookitself a black swan. Debt implies a strong statement about the future, and a high degree of reliance on forecasts. Once upon a time there was a clever young financial professional called nassim nicholas taleb. The hubris of predictions and our perpetual surprise when the notpredicted happens are themes of nassim nicholas talebs engaging new book, the black swan. From a statistical point of view, let me say that multilevel models often built from gaussian components can model various black swan behavior. The book focuses on the extreme impact of rare and unpredictable outlier events and the human tendency to find simplistic explanations for these events, retrospectively. Elegant, startling, and universal in its applications, the black swan is a landmark bookitself a black swan. Nassim nicholas taleb is an essayist, belletrist, and researcher only interested in one single topic, chance particularly extreme and rare events, the black swans i. Gq praise for the black swan a book that altered modern thinking. A black swan event, as made indelible in popular culture by scholar and former wall street trader nassim taleb, is an extraordinarily rare occurrence of massive magnitude and consequence.
He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to probability theory. Jul 28, 2010 a black swan event, as made indelible in popular culture by scholar and former wall street trader nassim taleb, is an extraordinarily rare occurrence of massive magnitude and consequence. Thats the opinion of former derivatives trader nassim taleb, whose bestseller, the black swan, is about how people make sense of unexpected. Nassim nicholas talebs advice on borrowing money and getting. The black swan portfolio together you could view the two as a barbell portfolio. Broadly, it shows that humans tend to create environments where extreme events are more likely and. Jul 05, 2010 debt implies a strong statement about the future, and a high degree of reliance on forecasts. Nassim taleb is a literary essayist, hedge fund manager, derivatives trader and professor of risk engineering at the polytechnic institute of new york university. His 2007 book the black swan has been described by the sunday times as one of the twelve most. Antifragile is a standalone book in nassim nicholas talebs landmark incerto series, an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decisionmaking in a world we dont understand. Black swan author nassim taleb has never, ever borrowed a.
Apr 20, 2018 nassim nicholas taleb has never borrowed a cent in his life the author of the black swan and skin in the game on what its like to have true financial freedom. Taleb calls this the black swan theory the book covers subjects relating to knowledge. A postulated antithesis to fragility where highimpact events or shocks can be beneficial. The meltdown in 2007 was a crisis of debt, and if anything, the. The pandemic isnt a black swan but a portent of a more fragile. Nassim nicholas taleb, author of the black swan, speaks during the second. Nassim nicholas taleb, the bestselling author of the black swan, popularized the term black swan so much so that hes dubbed the black swan man. Chris anderson, editor in chief of wired, author of the long tail idiosyncratically brilliant. Paul solman spoke with taleb about the book, the 2008 financial crisis, and. You have to avoid debt because debt makes the system more fragile. Black swan author nassim taleb has never, ever borrowed. Black swan author nassim nicholas taleb divides the world into.
569 583 1423 147 1379 1572 48 1649 452 717 39 1228 794 849 598 545 147 607 1570 728 981 1628 1429 949 1078 917 1162 1486 101 1089 68 993 189 1161 776 297 1497 769 185 197 732 175 701 1302 560 18 1256 590 282